Hype Meter explainer

The Hype Meter is a formula that measures season’s expectations against actual results. It’s aim is to produce an alternative and somewhat stranger measurement of how Arsenal is progressing in the Premier League. A more touchy-feely gauge of whether we need to buck up our act or enjoy the trailing pack eating our dust.

There are three indicators of interest:

Hype Meter Explainer

The Hype

The Hype is a percentage value that measures points gained by Arsenal in the league compared to the predicted cummulative points. In other words, how many points Arsenal gain divided by how many Arsenal were expected to gain up to this point.

It’s quite possible to have a value greater than 100 per cent. In fact, if the season’s prospects are quite negative, you would be hoping for a Hype value of greater than 100 per cent.

The Curve

The Curve is the simplest equation to understand. If the Hype percentage has increased since the last league match, you’ll enjoy the sight of a juicy green granny-smith arrow. Should it decrease, a nasty red one. On the odd occasion the percentage remains the same, an equal sign will appear.

The Verdict

The Verdict is a predicted finish on the league ladder according to the current Hype level. In the same way projected totals are calculated in one-day cricket, the Verdict is the Hype percentage multiplied by the predicted finish, which is then correlated against the average points total of the past five seasons in each league position.

Hurdles

Below is a compilation of all points finishes for every position in the English Premier League for the past five seasons.

Each points total has been averaged out to indicate a rough guess at how many points are usually required to secure each position. For example, to win the Premier League, you will require on average at least 86 points. To avoid relegation, you will need more than 36 points.

Hurdles are simply the milestones Arsenal can pass or aim for in an entire season. Sufficient hype can often indicate a ‘Championship’ push, or a top-four finish.

Position
Hurdle
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
Average
1 Championship 89 80 86 90 87 86.4
2 Runner-up 89 71 85 86 85 83.2
3 UCL 70 71 75 83 83 76.4
4 UCL Playoff 69 68 70 72 76 71
5 Europa Cup 65 62 67 63 65 64.4
6 64 58 64 62 60 61.6
7 56 54 63 53 58 56.8
8 52 49 61 51 57 54
9 52 48 50 51 55 51.2
10 Top 10 47 47 50 50 49 48.6
11 47 47 47 45 46 46.4
12 47 46 46 45 43 45.4
13 45 46 44 41 42 43.6
14 45 46 39 41 40 42.2
15 43 43 38 41 39 40.8
16 38 42 36 36 37 37.8
17 37 40 35 35 36 36.6
18 Relegation 36 39 30 34 36 35
19 31 39 30 32 35 33.4
20 Wooden spoon 25 33 19 32 11 24

Disclaimer: the Hype Meter is a pseudoscientific, hocus-pocus piece of bullshit I’ve made up from pure guess-work and over-zealous negativity. It is not gospel and I don’t plan on buying anyone any beers when they say “Ha! How wrong you were!” at season’s end. I can take the sniggering.

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